Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.